Although the recent OPEC meeting has shown good results, and major oil-producing cWTI Crude Oil Fundountries have also expressed their agreement, the internal contradictions are actually quite large, so it is still difficult to achieve real frozen production. Although Iran and Saudi Arabia have expressed their support for the frozen production of crude oil on the surface, the output of crude oil is consistently high. If they really support the frozen production, then they have said in the early stage.
Oil prices rose by about 2% this week and fell back, mainly due to the military conflicts in Libya’s main oil export port during the weekend. However, this is only a temporary rebound. The current oversupply situation in the oil market is still quite serious. The market is bullish. It is difficult to sustain.
The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 40,000 barrels last week, far exceeding market expectations, while earlier data released by the American Petroleum Institute API showed an increase of 80,000 barrels. On the other hand, the US gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased by 220,000 barrels and 20,000 barrels respectively last week, both exceeding market expectations, giving effective support to oil prices.
Barkindo pointed out earlier this week: We are pushing ahead with plans to increase production. OPEC internal documents show that the output of OPEC members other than Nigeria, Libya and Congo in September increased by 480,000 barrels per day from May.
Last week, Russian Oil Minister Novak stated that OPEC and non-organized oil-producing countries could gradually increase production from July at the earliest, and return to the market with a supply of up to 500,000 barrels per day when an option is considered. Saudi Oil Minister Falih’s statement is relatively vague. He just predicted the success of the Vienna Conference on June 22. I think there will be an agreement that satisfies the most important market. This agreement is reasonable and moderate. It is not surprising.
At the end of this year, Special Counsel Mueller asked Trump about the decision to fire former FBI Director Comey and formerWTI Crude Oil Fund national security adviser Flynn, which caused the dollar to fall below the $90 mark. Even though Trump congratulated Putin on his re-election as president in December, the sensitive relationship between the two countries prevented Trump from having an official meeting with Putin.
Judging from the market performance last night, due to conflicting reports on Trump’s attitude from various parties, at first, international crude oil prices suffered a sharp drop in volatility; however, after Trump announced unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement, oil prices rebounded. But then fell again and ended lower.
This bad habit continues to be passed down among different investment markets and among individual traders. Most people have no way, but with hindsight, follow the market fluctuations according to the appearance of the market, often buy on the ceiling, cut the meat on the floor, treat the transaction as a gambling, or simply guess the ups and downs.